Comments on: 1st Half 2009 West Linn Real Estate Market Results http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/07/28/1st-half-2009-west-linn-real-estate-market-results/ News, Statistics, and Commentary about West Linn Oregon Real Estate Wed, 23 Jun 2010 15:10:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: dj http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/07/28/1st-half-2009-west-linn-real-estate-market-results/comment-page-1/#comment-750 dj Fri, 31 Jul 2009 22:56:13 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=774#comment-750 Ron, thanks for sharing this report. Putting this data together takes a lot of time and effort, and I really appreciate this valuable service you provide to your readers. The numbers are interesting and david has put together a very nice analysis of the current market, especially the eye-popping statement of 17 to 20 months of inventory in the West Linn market. I would argue that months of inventory depends on the price range of the home. For example, if we divide the market into two segments - one below $500K and the other above $500K, then we should see a change in picture. Why $500K ? Because, assuming a 20% down payment, this is where we see the crossover between conventional and jumbo mortgages, and hence a significant increase in monthly mortgage payments. In addition, $500K is the psychological barrier where people take serious pause to really understand whether or not they can afford the home. Lastly, for regular visitors to this site, we can see that most of the sales activity in the past year has involved <$500K homes. Therefore, it is my hypothesis that homes in the $500K range would have a longer months of inventory, probably more than 20 as david predicts. This is a very good analysis david, and it serves as another data point for continued price declines to help ease the current glut of homes in the West Linn market, especially in the $500K+ range. Ron, thanks for sharing this report. Putting this data together takes a lot of time and effort, and I really appreciate this valuable service you provide to your readers. The numbers are interesting and david has put together a very nice analysis of the current market, especially the eye-popping statement of 17 to 20 months of inventory in the West Linn market. I would argue that months of inventory depends on the price range of the home. For example, if we divide the market into two segments – one below $500K and the other above $500K, then we should see a change in picture. Why $500K ? Because, assuming a 20% down payment, this is where we see the crossover between conventional and jumbo mortgages, and hence a significant increase in monthly mortgage payments. In addition, $500K is the psychological barrier where people take serious pause to really understand whether or not they can afford the home. Lastly, for regular visitors to this site, we can see that most of the sales activity in the past year has involved <$500K homes. Therefore, it is my hypothesis that homes in the $500K range would have a longer months of inventory, probably more than 20 as david predicts. This is a very good analysis david, and it serves as another data point for continued price declines to help ease the current glut of homes in the West Linn market, especially in the $500K+ range.

]]> By: david http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/07/28/1st-half-2009-west-linn-real-estate-market-results/comment-page-1/#comment-748 david Wed, 29 Jul 2009 15:26:40 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=774#comment-748 I just ran some numbers. I searched the RMLS as of this morning. There are 401 houses listed for sale in West Linn. According to your data, 141 houses sold in the first 6 months of the year. That's about 23.5 houses per month. That means that the total inventory we have as of today is about 17 months of inventory (401 divided by 23.5). Note that this number is skewed toward the high side. In reality, most activity happens in the spring/summer. Transactions go down in the second half of the year. That ALWAYS happens. People do not want to move during Thanksgiving and Christmas and other holidays in the 2nd half of the year. So I think the actual inventory in West Linn right now is closer to 20 months seasonally adjusted. The DOM number is a shocker though. Thank you again for this wonderful data. We really appreciate your work on this blog. I just ran some numbers. I searched the RMLS as of this morning. There are 401 houses listed for sale in West Linn. According to your data, 141 houses sold in the first 6 months of the year. That’s about 23.5 houses per month. That means that the total inventory we have as of today is about 17 months of inventory (401 divided by 23.5).

Note that this number is skewed toward the high side. In reality, most activity happens in the spring/summer. Transactions go down in the second half of the year. That ALWAYS happens. People do not want to move during Thanksgiving and Christmas and other holidays in the 2nd half of the year.

So I think the actual inventory in West Linn right now is closer to 20 months seasonally adjusted.

The DOM number is a shocker though. Thank you again for this wonderful data. We really appreciate your work on this blog.

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