Comments on: West Linn Real Estate Market Activity – July 20-26, 2009 http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/07/27/west-linn-real-estate-market-activity-july-20-26-2009/ News, Statistics, and Commentary about West Linn Oregon Real Estate Wed, 23 Jun 2010 15:10:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: West Linn Real Estate Market Activity, July 27-August 2, 2009 | move2westlinn http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/07/27/west-linn-real-estate-market-activity-july-20-26-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-751 West Linn Real Estate Market Activity, July 27-August 2, 2009 | move2westlinn Mon, 03 Aug 2009 17:23:47 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=857#comment-751 [...] Ron speculated in last week’s report, there was a slight bump in sold homes this week in West [...] [...] Ron speculated in last week’s report, there was a slight bump in sold homes this week in West [...]

]]> By: dj http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/07/27/west-linn-real-estate-market-activity-july-20-26-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-747 dj Tue, 28 Jul 2009 18:48:04 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=857#comment-747 Hi david, you make a very good point about the condo vs. detached pricing, so theoretically the current $/sqft should be higher for detached homes. There is still downward pressure on home prices though, and I believe WL area is still searching for a bottom. And you're right, the $500K+ market is essentially dead (which would explain the high inventory), so the downward pressure in that price range will have a trickle-down effect on the lower-priced homes. I thought I saw that last night when I looked at the numbers, but in my zeal, I missed the home's classification :) Another point to note is that there is some talk of a market recovery.... Portland was historically late to the bubble-mania and also late to the collapse. I think that any benefits of a nationwide recovery would take at least a year for it to reach Portland. And with Oregon unemployment one of the highest in the nation, it will be a while before people feel comfortable enough to purchase a home. Hi david, you make a very good point about the condo vs. detached pricing, so theoretically the current $/sqft should be higher for detached homes. There is still downward pressure on home prices though, and I believe WL area is still searching for a bottom. And you’re right, the $500K+ market is essentially dead (which would explain the high inventory), so the downward pressure in that price range will have a trickle-down effect on the lower-priced homes. I thought I saw that last night when I looked at the numbers, but in my zeal, I missed the home’s classification :) Another point to note is that there is some talk of a market recovery…. Portland was historically late to the bubble-mania and also late to the collapse. I think that any benefits of a nationwide recovery would take at least a year for it to reach Portland. And with Oregon unemployment one of the highest in the nation, it will be a while before people feel comfortable enough to purchase a home.

]]> By: david http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/07/27/west-linn-real-estate-market-activity-july-20-26-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-746 david Tue, 28 Jul 2009 15:22:52 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=857#comment-746 dj, the two homes that were in the sold section were condos/townhomes. They have lower price per square foot to begin with. Most people look at detached single family homes as the baseline number. What worries me is the supply/demand curve. There is a lot of inventory on the market in the 500+K range. In WL/LO both. Most of the closed deals are in the sub-500K range. Just from a purely supply/demand point of view, the price have to drop back to a more normal level of inventory. Ron or Jody, do you know what the "normal" level of inventory in the pre-bubble days? Before 2000 like in 1995-1998? How many homes are closed per week and how many new listings per week. Or another way to put it, the months of inventory on the market. That is, if 10 homes get sold a month and there are 200 homes for sale. We have 20 months of inventory. That's an example number. I would like to compare the months of inventory in 1995-1998 vs today. dj, the two homes that were in the sold section were condos/townhomes. They have lower price per square foot to begin with.

Most people look at detached single family homes as the baseline number.

What worries me is the supply/demand curve. There is a lot of inventory on the market in the 500+K range. In WL/LO both. Most of the closed deals are in the sub-500K range. Just from a purely supply/demand point of view, the price have to drop back to a more normal level of inventory.

Ron or Jody, do you know what the “normal” level of inventory in the pre-bubble days? Before 2000 like in 1995-1998? How many homes are closed per week and how many new listings per week. Or another way to put it, the months of inventory on the market.
That is, if 10 homes get sold a month and there are 200 homes for sale. We have 20 months of inventory. That’s an example number. I would like to compare the months of inventory in 1995-1998 vs today.

]]> By: dj http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/07/27/west-linn-real-estate-market-activity-july-20-26-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-742 dj Tue, 28 Jul 2009 07:42:02 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=857#comment-742 In the new listings section, there are 2 homes that have skewed the average $/sqft higher - the Tanner Creek Lane home and the one on "On File Road". Similarly, in the pending homes section, there are two homes that look the same but oddly have 2 different price points, and are also skewing the $/sqft lower. The real action though, is in the sold listing, which shows $126/sqft. Can it get any lower ? I think come September onwards when home buying season is over, we should continue to see declines in home prices. I read an article this morning that said that home prices will continue to fall in the Portland area by about 10% in 2012. Given our unemployment rate is one of the highest in the nation, I think many buyers are being extremely cautious which will push home prices further down, so we should see another 10% decline within 9 months, especially when the first time home buyers credit expires at the end of this year. Unless of course bailout-mania continues... I'm still confused about the new listing prices though. Seems to be a huge disconnect between asking prices and closed sales. A friend of mine told me this is "anchoring" where you set the price at a certain level so it gets in the system, and then you discount it a week or two later to give the buyer the impression that they are getting a great deal because they got it for x% off the asking price. If this is the case, I think buyers in this environment are much more intelligent than that. They will not look at the prices original asking price. Rather they will look to see what comparable homes have sold for, and of course, look at this great website, which contains a wealth of information. At the end of the day, its the market value that will decide whether a home is sold or not, and not some inflated pricing which is then discounted by x% In the new listings section, there are 2 homes that have skewed the average $/sqft higher – the Tanner Creek Lane home and the one on “On File Road”. Similarly, in the pending homes section, there are two homes that look the same but oddly have 2 different price points, and are also skewing the $/sqft lower. The real action though, is in the sold listing, which shows $126/sqft. Can it get any lower ? I think come September onwards when home buying season is over, we should continue to see declines in home prices. I read an article this morning that said that home prices will continue to fall in the Portland area by about 10% in 2012. Given our unemployment rate is one of the highest in the nation, I think many buyers are being extremely cautious which will push home prices further down, so we should see another 10% decline within 9 months, especially when the first time home buyers credit expires at the end of this year. Unless of course bailout-mania continues… I’m still confused about the new listing prices though. Seems to be a huge disconnect between asking prices and closed sales. A friend of mine told me this is “anchoring” where you set the price at a certain level so it gets in the system, and then you discount it a week or two later to give the buyer the impression that they are getting a great deal because they got it for x% off the asking price. If this is the case, I think buyers in this environment are much more intelligent than that. They will not look at the prices original asking price. Rather they will look to see what comparable homes have sold for, and of course, look at this great website, which contains a wealth of information. At the end of the day, its the market value that will decide whether a home is sold or not, and not some inflated pricing which is then discounted by x%

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