Comments on: West Linn Real Estate, February 2-8, 2009 http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/02/09/west-linn-real-estate-february-2-8-2009/ News, Statistics, and Commentary about West Linn Oregon Real Estate Wed, 23 Jun 2010 15:10:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: dj http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/02/09/west-linn-real-estate-february-2-8-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-565 dj Fri, 13 Feb 2009 01:55:09 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=411#comment-565 Well, looks like I typed too soon. The latest plan now is to help refinance owners who are at risk of foreclosure. This plan has now come full circle, since this was the original plan being proposed right before the Bush administration requested the $700B bailout back in September 08. Why is it, that those who have always been careful about living within their means end up having to foot the bill for others' excesses ? I heard the arguments that its to everyone's benefit if homes are saved from foreclosure (i.e. property values, abandoned lots, etc.), but as I mentioned in my earlier post, there was nothing normal about the past 5 years of rabid speculation on property values. You win some, you lose some. Nobody forced buyers to pay overinflated prices for homes. Back in the heyday, I don't recall investors ever saying, 'you know, I've made too much money on this investment. I'm going to give some back for the good of society, because society has been good to me and its my duty.' No, when times are good, we're a capitalist society and its every person for themselves. When times get rough, then all of a sudden the responsible folks are forced to shoulder the burden for those who couldn't manage their finances. What upsets me most is that I have absolutely no control over the decisions and commitments that are being made on my behalf. Well, looks like I typed too soon. The latest plan now is to help refinance owners who are at risk of foreclosure. This plan has now come full circle, since this was the original plan being proposed right before the Bush administration requested the $700B bailout back in September 08. Why is it, that those who have always been careful about living within their means end up having to foot the bill for others’ excesses ? I heard the arguments that its to everyone’s benefit if homes are saved from foreclosure (i.e. property values, abandoned lots, etc.), but as I mentioned in my earlier post, there was nothing normal about the past 5 years of rabid speculation on property values. You win some, you lose some. Nobody forced buyers to pay overinflated prices for homes. Back in the heyday, I don’t recall investors ever saying, ‘you know, I’ve made too much money on this investment. I’m going to give some back for the good of society, because society has been good to me and its my duty.’ No, when times are good, we’re a capitalist society and its every person for themselves. When times get rough, then all of a sudden the responsible folks are forced to shoulder the burden for those who couldn’t manage their finances. What upsets me most is that I have absolutely no control over the decisions and commitments that are being made on my behalf.

]]> By: dj http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/02/09/west-linn-real-estate-february-2-8-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-564 dj Thu, 12 Feb 2009 19:53:01 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=411#comment-564 Hi Jody, thanks for the note. I agree with your assessment. And Stuart, thanks for the note on the $15K tax credit being rescinded from the final draft of the $800B stimulus package. I was actually surprised that it was removed, given the generally accepted wisdom about how fixing the housing market will also fix the economy. And no one is talking about that 4.5% interest rate that was proposed a few months back. Perhaps housing is not the root of the current financial crisis. It appears the feds are sending a message that housing needs to reset to fair market value and sustainable levels. Although I wouldn't say 'no' to a hand-out, I do believe that any temporary government-sponsored incentive that encourages real-estate transactions are artificial and would just delay the inevitable reset that must take place if the market is to recover. Painful as it is, the reset must happen. As a homeowner, I too have seen my property value nosedive like everyone else. I don't like it, but it's the bitter medicine I need to swallow if the markets are to find a bottom. Hi Jody, thanks for the note. I agree with your assessment. And Stuart, thanks for the note on the $15K tax credit being rescinded from the final draft of the $800B stimulus package. I was actually surprised that it was removed, given the generally accepted wisdom about how fixing the housing market will also fix the economy. And no one is talking about that 4.5% interest rate that was proposed a few months back. Perhaps housing is not the root of the current financial crisis. It appears the feds are sending a message that housing needs to reset to fair market value and sustainable levels. Although I wouldn’t say ‘no’ to a hand-out, I do believe that any temporary government-sponsored incentive that encourages real-estate transactions are artificial and would just delay the inevitable reset that must take place if the market is to recover. Painful as it is, the reset must happen. As a homeowner, I too have seen my property value nosedive like everyone else. I don’t like it, but it’s the bitter medicine I need to swallow if the markets are to find a bottom.

]]> By: Stuart http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/02/09/west-linn-real-estate-february-2-8-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-563 Stuart Thu, 12 Feb 2009 16:38:44 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=411#comment-563 Looks like the $15k tax credit measure got booted from the house bill. In West Linn, we'd be better off praying for AMT relief anyway. New report out from the NAR today (not exactly known for their doom and gloom perspective of the housing market) shows median prices now at roughly 2003 levels: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Foreclosures-push-US-home-rb-14338746.html So the message for sellers is clear. If your house is priced for more than it was worth in 2003, you had better have made some major upgrades, or you'll be waiting a loooong time before the sellers start visting. Looks like the $15k tax credit measure got booted from the house bill. In West Linn, we’d be better off praying for AMT relief anyway.

New report out from the NAR today (not exactly known for their doom and gloom perspective of the housing market) shows median prices now at roughly 2003 levels:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Foreclosures-push-US-home-rb-14338746.html
So the message for sellers is clear. If your house is priced for more than it was worth in 2003, you had better have made some major upgrades, or you’ll be waiting a loooong time before the sellers start visting.

]]> By: Jody McLeod http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/02/09/west-linn-real-estate-february-2-8-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-562 Jody McLeod Thu, 12 Feb 2009 03:51:20 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=411#comment-562 DJ - I can't help but think that a $15K tax credit wouldn't push those that are sitting on the fence over to the buying side. The credit may not stabilize the market, but I think it would rejuvinate sales, which is very much needed these days. Of course, buyers are going to want both a lower-priced home and the credit. Who wouldn't? If the stimulus package passes, more people will be making offers, but you can bet that they will still be offering under asking prices. Will sellers take this into consideration when pricing their homes and up their asking prices? They may, but buyers should be saavy enough these days to realize when a house has been priced way over its value. An interesting note, unlike the first home-buyer tax credit of $7,500, this one applies to all home buyers (not just first-time buyers), does not have to be repaid, and has no income limit. It also sunsets the original tax credit. It will be interesting to see what the future holds. DJ – I can’t help but think that a $15K tax credit wouldn’t push those that are sitting on the fence over to the buying side. The credit may not stabilize the market, but I think it would rejuvinate sales, which is very much needed these days. Of course, buyers are going to want both a lower-priced home and the credit. Who wouldn’t? If the stimulus package passes, more people will be making offers, but you can bet that they will still be offering under asking prices. Will sellers take this into consideration when pricing their homes and up their asking prices? They may, but buyers should be saavy enough these days to realize when a house has been priced way over its value. An interesting note, unlike the first home-buyer tax credit of $7,500, this one applies to all home buyers (not just first-time buyers), does not have to be repaid, and has no income limit. It also sunsets the original tax credit. It will be interesting to see what the future holds.

]]> By: dj http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/02/09/west-linn-real-estate-february-2-8-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-557 dj Tue, 10 Feb 2009 20:26:20 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=411#comment-557 Ron, Jody, I have a question for you - I just caught the latest news on the latest revision of the economic stimulus package, and they are offering homebuyers a $15K tax credit if they buy a home within the next year. It looks like no one is talking about the 4.5% 30yr fixed interest rate proposal anymore, which quite frankly would have been much more attractive. Do you think the $15K tax credit will help stabilize the WL market and encourage buyers to take action ? My main concern is that homes are still overpriced, and that the $15K will only give sellers an excuse to not lower their prices to true market value. Of course, the buyer wants to take the $15K credit AND get a good price on the home. What is the middle ground ? Ron, Jody, I have a question for you – I just caught the latest news on the latest revision of the economic stimulus package, and they are offering homebuyers a $15K tax credit if they buy a home within the next year. It looks like no one is talking about the 4.5% 30yr fixed interest rate proposal anymore, which quite frankly would have been much more attractive. Do you think the $15K tax credit will help stabilize the WL market and encourage buyers to take action ? My main concern is that homes are still overpriced, and that the $15K will only give sellers an excuse to not lower their prices to true market value. Of course, the buyer wants to take the $15K credit AND get a good price on the home. What is the middle ground ?

]]> By: dj http://www.move2westlinn.com/2009/02/09/west-linn-real-estate-february-2-8-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-556 dj Tue, 10 Feb 2009 20:21:02 +0000 http://www.move2westlinn.com/?p=411#comment-556 Looks like there are 3 categories of buyers: (1) Those in the <$400K bracket. These include investors, first-time homebuyers, empty-nesters, and boomers looking to downsize. (2) $450K - $850K. These are the upwardly mobile professionals, middle managers, or those who are trading up from the first bracket. (3) $850K+ - these are the independently wealthy homeowners, or people who are extremely leveraged. The home that sold for $2.5M this week is clearly a transaction that took place with a very small niche of buyers who represent the upper echelons of wealth in the Portland area. How many of these buyers exist in the real world ? Not that many, since it took almost 3 years to sell the property, and it only got hit with a 14% price decrease. The physics in the 3rd bracket is clearly different than for the other markets. Glad to see that despite all the doom-and-gloom about the credit crisis, all is not lost. For those in the 2nd bracket, the market has completely collapsed. The upwardly mobile professionals are now worried about job security and feeling very unwealthy given that their financial portfolios have been massacred, and those who are trading up are having a hard time selling their homes for the price they want. So they are deciding to postpone their purchase until the market improves. The only bracket that is doing comparatively well is the 1st bracket, where mortgage payments are relatively more 'affordable' for new homeowners, and investors can potentially cover their mortgage, taxes, etc. by renting out these properties. All this to say that the $2.5M sale this week is, and will continue to be a once-in-a-blue-moon event. The sales action is going to be in the sub $400K market for a while. Looks like there are 3 categories of buyers: (1) Those in the <$400K bracket. These include investors, first-time homebuyers, empty-nesters, and boomers looking to downsize. (2) $450K – $850K. These are the upwardly mobile professionals, middle managers, or those who are trading up from the first bracket. (3) $850K+ – these are the independently wealthy homeowners, or people who are extremely leveraged. The home that sold for $2.5M this week is clearly a transaction that took place with a very small niche of buyers who represent the upper echelons of wealth in the Portland area. How many of these buyers exist in the real world ? Not that many, since it took almost 3 years to sell the property, and it only got hit with a 14% price decrease. The physics in the 3rd bracket is clearly different than for the other markets. Glad to see that despite all the doom-and-gloom about the credit crisis, all is not lost. For those in the 2nd bracket, the market has completely collapsed. The upwardly mobile professionals are now worried about job security and feeling very unwealthy given that their financial portfolios have been massacred, and those who are trading up are having a hard time selling their homes for the price they want. So they are deciding to postpone their purchase until the market improves. The only bracket that is doing comparatively well is the 1st bracket, where mortgage payments are relatively more ‘affordable’ for new homeowners, and investors can potentially cover their mortgage, taxes, etc. by renting out these properties. All this to say that the $2.5M sale this week is, and will continue to be a once-in-a-blue-moon event. The sales action is going to be in the sub $400K market for a while.

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