West Linn Real Estate Activity – November 3-6, 2008
Ron Ares November 10th, 2008
Just one pending sale from last week, and for first time since we’ve been posting real estate activity for the West Linn market, there are 0 closed sales. We may see some late stragglers hit the list later, but you get the idea…
NEWLY LISTED
| ADDRESS |
LIST PRICE
|
# BEDS
|
# BATHS
|
TOTAL SQ FT
|
TYPE OF HOME |
DATE LISTED
|
| 3870 SUMMERLINN DR |
$249,900
|
2
|
2.1
|
1,418
|
ATTACHD |
11/3
|
| 2468 19TH ST |
$335,000
|
4
|
3
|
1,934
|
DETACHD |
11/2
|
| 200 SW PEACH COVE LN |
$359,900
|
3
|
2
|
2,100
|
DETACHD |
11/2
|
| 30625 SW RIVERWOOD DR |
$399,900
|
3
|
3
|
2,408
|
DETACHD |
11/2
|
| 1849 Joseph Fields ST |
$439,900
|
4
|
2.1
|
2,300
|
DETACHD |
11/7
|
| 1837 Joseph Fields ST |
$459,900
|
4
|
4
|
2,538
|
DETACHD |
11/7
|
| 3875 FAIRHAVEN DR |
$469,900
|
3
|
3.1
|
2,904
|
DETACHD |
11/4
|
| 1955 ARENA CT |
$475,000
|
3
|
2.1
|
2,790
|
DETACHD |
11/2
|
| 2110 CLUBHOUSE DR |
$499,000
|
4
|
2.1
|
3,040
|
DETACHD |
11/2
|
| 2866 WARWICK ST |
$499,900
|
3
|
2
|
1,812
|
DETACHD |
11/6
|
| 22011 SHANNON PL |
$569,900
|
4
|
3
|
3,524
|
DETACHD |
11/6
|
| 5325 SUMMIT ST |
$599,000
|
4
|
2.1
|
3,546
|
DETACHD |
11/4
|
| 21380 HORTON CT |
$650,000
|
4
|
3.1
|
4,539
|
DETACHD |
11/6
|
PENDING SALES
| ADDRESS |
LIST PRICE
|
# BEDS
|
# BATHS
|
TOTAL SQ FT
|
TYPE OF HOME |
DOM
|
| 2744 Ridge Lot 47 LN |
$799,900
|
4
|
3.1
|
3,575
|
DETACHD |
11/5
|
Criteria: Homes in the 97068 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS ). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer.
Related posts:
Also, for the first time since this website went up, it appears that the new listings’ have much more realistic asking prices. It’s about time. However, I still believe prices will continue to fall in the months ahead, regardless of what government programs may be put in place to stem the tide of falling real-estate values. With fear, uncertainty and doubt about the economy, and the lack of credit liquidity, home buyers are not going to risk a sizable portion of their income and what’s left of their investments to purchase overvalued homes that, in most likely will continue to depreciate for a while.
I’m not sure where the bottom is for WL real-estate, but we’re not there yet.
Well, “finally” the new listings average price per square foot is coming down! Anyone would think we had been talking about Lake LostEgo pricing. The latest numbers show an average $160/sqft. Still high for family incomes, and given the lack of funny money mortgages, this will come down, or at best stay static for a loooong time.
It would appear that the 500K to 800K market is softening significantly, but there’s still a lack of capitulation at the <$500K points. If you own an $800K+ home, you’re pretty much toast in this market.
New listings are still overpriced on average though. Look at the sale price for some of these listings from 6 to 10 years ago and extrapolate at the nominal 5% real estate growth rate:
2468 19TH ST. Sold in 2001 for $180K. Extrapolate 7 years at 5% yields $253K. Asking $335K.
1955 ARENA CT. Sold in 1998 for $262K. Extrapolate 10 years at 5% yields $426K. Asking $475K.
2110 CLUBHOUSE DR. Sold in 1996 for $274K. Extrapolate 12 years at 5% yields $492K. Asking $499K.
5325 SUMMIT ST. Sold in 1998 for $332K. Sold in 2004 for $475K. Extrapolate 10 years at 5% yields $540K. Asking $599K.
21380 HORTON CT. Sold in 1993 for $315K. Extrapolate 15 years at 5% yields $655K. Asking $650K.
Still a way to go in the “normal income” house buyer’s range. No Californians moving on up. No over-optioned dot-com whizz kids. No Mentor/Intel/Tektronix tech types with mega bonuses or cashed out options. Not enough Blazer’s to keep the game going.
An average $140 per sqft by mid to end of 2009 is what I’m looking for. Income taxes will be rising from both Salem and DC, bonuses will be non-existent in tech and finance. Property taxes will increase with lots of extra bonds and junk added at the last minute to what will now be non-super-majority ballots. Job losses will accelerate. Boomers’ 401K’s and investments have tanked. And there’s another wave of ARM resets coming in 2010…..